Here’s a breakdown of which countries and industries are most negatively affected by the current and anticipated US tariffs (effective August 1, 2025), who’s benefiting, and what might unfold over the next three weeks:

Countries & Industries Most Negatively Affected

Canada

• Overall tariffs rising to 35% on all imports from Canada (up from 25%)  .
• Auto parts, steel, and aluminum hit hardest—these were already subject to 25–50% tariffs earlier this year.

Brazil

• Facing a 50% tariff on beef and broader goods—likely halting Brazilian beef imports and raising US consumer prices  .
• Other commodity sectors like copper and coffee also at risk.

South Korea & Japan

• 25% tariffs on all imports from South Korea and Japan, layered on existing duties (e.g., steel, autos) ().
• Electronics, autos, and batteries (Samsung, LG, Hyundai, Kia) most affected  .

 Malaysia, Laos, Myanmar, South Africa

• New reciprocal tariffs ranging from 25–40%  .
• Malaysia: electronics/semiconductors currently exempt, but uncertainty looms  .
• South Africa: auto sector heavily impacted, undermining AGOA benefits  .

 

Additional countries

• Vietnam (20%), India (26–27%), Cambodia (36%), Laos (40%), Bangladesh (35%), Tunisia/Malaysia (up to 50%), and others face steep tariffs  .

Who’s Benefiting (Positive Impact)

US Domestic Producers

• Copper producers: US Comex copper prices spiked ~13% after news of 50% tariffs  .
• Domestic beef and agriculture: US producers may see short-term gains from reduced Brazilian competition ().

 

Alternative Exporters & Suppliers

• Australia and Argentina: Likely to see beef export volumes rise in absence of Brazilian imports  .
• Semiconductor suppliers outside Malaysia, like Mexico or the Philippines, may capture redirected orders  .

 

Financial Markets (short-term sentiment)

• US stock indexes momentarily rallied following tariff announcements ().
• Bond markets hint at expected Fed rate cuts due to slowing growth  .

?? Near-Term Outlook (Next 3 Weeks)

1. Negotiations & Adjustments

• Countries like Japan, EU, UK, China, Vietnam are actively negotiating to delay or mitigate tariffs ().
• Investors should watch for any deals before August 1 that could lighten or delay duties.
• Court Challenges

• Legal suits are underway against these tariffs; some delays or injunctions could arrive within the next few weeks ().Market Volatility

• Continued policy unpredictability may suppress business investment; S&P 500 earnings could be trimmed ~1–2% per 5 pp of tariff hikes  .Price Inflation Pressures

• Rising costs in commodities (beef, copper, pharma, lumber, semis) may feed into consumer prices shortly after August 1 ().

Summary Table: Impact Snapshot

Region/Country	Tariff Rate	Most Affected Industries	U.S./Offshore Beneficiaries
Canada	35%	Autos, steel, aluminum	— (some supply chain reshuffling)
Brazil	50%	Beef, coffee, orange juice	US ranchers; AUS/ARG exports
South Korea & Japan	25%	Electronics, autos, batteries	US copper/electronics; MX/PH exporters
Malaysia, South Africa	25–40%	Semiconductors, automobiles	Offshore exporters in exempt regions
Vietnam, India, etc.	20–40%	Diverse goods	Alternate sourcing in low-tariff areas

What to Watch in Coming Weeks

• Key deadlines: August 1 is the line in the sand—any last-minute agreements could postpone tariffs.
• Legal rulings: Court interventions might restrain enforcement — check news feeds around mid-July.
• Market behavior: Watch commodity prices (especially copper) and bond spreads as economic expectations shift.

Bottom line:

Tariffs set for August 1 threaten to disrupt global supply chains—particularly hurting Canadian autos, Brazilian beef, Korean/Japanese electronics, and more. US domestic producers and alternate exporters stand to gain in the short term. But uncertainty—legal, diplomatic, and market-driven—could shift this dynamic in the next three weeks.

 

Court Challenges:

• Legal suits are underway against these tariffs; some delays or injunctions could arrive within the next few weeks ().

Market Volatility:

• Continued policy unpredictability may suppress business investment; S&P 500 earnings could be trimmed ~1–2% per 5 pp of tariff hikes  .

Market Volatility:

• Price Inflation Pressures
• Rising costs in commodities (beef, copper, pharma, lumber, semis) may feed into consumer prices shortly after August 1 ().

Bottom line:

Tariffs set for August 1 threaten to disrupt global supply chains—particularly hurting Canadian autos, Brazilian beef, Korean/Japanese electronics, and more. US domestic producers and alternate exporters stand to gain in the short term. But uncertainty—legal, diplomatic, and market-driven—could shift this dynamic in the next three weeks.

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 https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jul/11/donald-trump-latest-tariff-threats-analysis-us-economy

 

www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-tariff-brazilian-goods-could-jack-up-us-burger

 

www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-countries-goods-explained