Here are several upcoming earnings events over the next 1–3 weeks, along with historical tendencies that may hint at profitable option strategies (calls or puts):

📅 Key Upcoming Earnings & Option Pattern Highlights

 

Based on Optionslam’s earnings calendar, here are notable releases scheduled in the next two weeks  :

• CALX (Calix, Inc.) – July 21, 2025
• Past 20-day post-earnings move: +15.24%
• High short-term rally suggests a bullish play (long calls or call spreads) could have been profitable.
• HSTM (HealthStream, Inc.) – July 21, 2025
• Moved −20.66% historically—offering a potential put or long put spread opportunity if consistent.
• MEDP (Medpace Holdings) – July 21, 2025
• +24.43% average move—suggesting large upside rallies, suitable for call or straddle strategies.
• AGYS (Agilysys, Inc.) – July 21, 2025
• +15.57% historically—again a candidate for bullish call strategies.
• ENPH (Enphase Energy) – July 22, 2025
• +35.36% average move—one of the largest surges, indicating strong upside volatility and a call/straddle play.
• PEGA (Pegasystems) – July 22, 2025
• +15.57% historically—solid consistent rallies post-earnings.
• EFX (Equifax) – July 22, 2025
• +15.57% same day average—significant moves favoring call spreads or straddles.

🔎 Patterns & Strategy Insights

1. Consistent Upside Surprises

Stocks like MEDP, ENPH, CALX, AGYS, PEGA, and EFX show repeated strong post-earnings gains, suggesting bullish options strategies (e.g., call spreads or straddles) could work if upside surprises persist.

2. Volatile Downside Event (HSTM)

Historical −20.66% moves signal potential for bearish put strategies.

3. Implied Volatility (IV) and IV Crush

Popular patterns include buying straddles before the event and closing before IV crush—when implied volatility collapses after earnings  .

4. Expected vs. Realized Moves

Traders look for cases where implied moves (via ATM straddles) are lower than historical actual moves—creating edge opportunities  .

5. Post‑Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD)

Stocks with strong surprises can continue trending post-earnings. This drift effect has shown 8–43% annualized returns in some cases  . A call spread or trend-following strategy after earnings could capture this if the event beats expectations.

✅ Recommended Watchlist & Strategy Overview

Ticker	Earnings Date	Historical Move	Strategy Potential
CALX	Jul 21	+15% avg post	Bullish calls or calendar/vertical spreads
MEDP	Jul 21	+24% avg post	Long calls / straddles
ENPH	Jul 22	+35% avg post	High-volatility bullish plays (calls/straddles)
EFX	Jul 22	+15% avg post	Bullish spec or spreads
HSTM	Jul 21	−20% avg post	Bearish puts or protective strategies
PEGA, AGYS	Jul 22	+15% avg post	Similar to above bullish setups

 

⚙️ How to Approach Trading These

1. Check Implied vs. Actual Move

-> If IV implies a ±10% move but historical average is ±20%, there’s room for upside if the event surprises.

2. Choose the Right Strategy

• Large upside: Try long calls or call spreads
• Big down moves: Consider puts or put spreads
• Uncertainty in both directions: Straddles/strangles, closing before IV crush

Manage Risk & Time Yourself Carefully

• Close positions before IV collapses (crush typically right after earnings)
• Look to capture post-earnings drift via long-dated spreads if bullish bias persists

🧭 Next Steps

• You can use platforms like Options AI, Market Chameleon, or Optionslam to view implied move expectations and compare them to historical actual moves for each ticker.
• Filter for IV > realized move to find where options are potentially mispriced.
• Set alerts for earnings dates and IV shifts, and tailor your strategy (calls, puts, straddles) based on directional bias and cost.

Let me know if you’d like me to deep-dive into one of these tickers, pull specific IV data, or walk through expected move vs actual move analysis for a chosen stock!

IV CRUSH

“IV Crush” stands for Implied Volatility Crush, a sharp drop in implied volatility (IV) that typically happens immediately after a known event, most commonly earnings announcements.

 

It’s a critical concept for options traders — especially if you’re buying options ahead of earnings — because it can destroy the value of an option, even if the stock moves in your favor.

🧨 What Is IV Crush?

Implied Volatility (IV) reflects how much the market expects a stock to move. Before earnings, IV usually rises as traders anticipate a big move. But after the event happens, the uncertainty disappears, so IV falls dramatically.

 

That drop — the “crush” — causes option premiums to shrink, hurting buyers of options (especially straddles, calls, or puts bought pre-event).

📉 Example

 Suppose:

• Stock = $100
• Earnings are tomorrow
• IV = 80%
• You buy a call for $5

 

After earnings:

• Stock rises to $105
• But IV drops to 40%
• Now the call is only worth $3.50 — you lost money, even though the stock moved up!

 

That’s IV crush in action.

📏 How to Anticipate, Measure, or Predict IV Crush

 

✅ 1. Track IV into Earnings

Look at:

• Historical IV trends leading into earnings (using platforms like ThinkorSwim, Market Chameleon, Optionslam, or TradingView)
• Compare current IV to historical earnings IV → is it elevated?

If IV is much higher than usual pre-earnings, there’s more room for IV crush afterward.

✅ 2. Compare IV to Historical Realized Moves

This is the most powerful method.

Metric	Meaning
Implied move	Projected move priced into options (via IV)
Actual move	How much the stock actually moved post-earnings
If implied > actual	IV crush is likely — options are overpriced
If implied < actual	Options may be underpriced — surprise move profits

Example:

• IV implies ±10% move
• Historical actual average = ±5%
• → Options are likely overpriced → high risk of IV crush

✅ 3. Use IV Percentile / IV Rank

• IV Rank = where current IV stands vs its 52-week range.
• IV Rank > 50 = High → more potential for IV crush
• IV Rank < 20 = Low → less IV to crush

✅ 4. Use Tools or Sites That Chart IV Before & After Earnings

• ThinkOrSwim: Charts historical IV over time
• MarketChameleon: Shows IV crush impact across prior earnings
• Optionslam: Gives expected move vs actual and ranks “move surprise”
• LiveVol / OptionStrat: Advanced modeling of IV changes

🧠 How to Trade Around IV Crush

Goal	Strategy
Avoid IV crush	Sell premium (e.g., iron condors, spreads) before earnings
Bet on big move despite crush	Buy cheap straddles (only if IV low and expected move high)
Capture post-event momentum	Trade after earnings, once IV has dropped
Hedge direction	Use spreads (limit loss, reduce cost vs long call/put)

🔑 Final Thoughts

• IV crush is predictable — it almost always follows scheduled binary events (like earnings).
• It hurts option buyers, helps option sellers.
• Use IV rank, expected vs. actual move, and tools like ThinkOrSwim to avoid overpaying for inflated options.

 

Would you like to see a live example or chart showing how IV crush worked for a specific stock recently (e.g., NVDA, AMZN, or any of the upcoming earnings plays)?

Here’s a live example demonstrating how IV crush works, using NVIDIA (NVDA) and its May 28, 2025 earnings release:

🎯 Real-World Example: NVDA IV Crush (May 2025)

• Pre-earnings IV was elevated (around 64–80%) as traders anticipated a big move  .
• Post-earnings, IV dropped sharply by about 18% on average across recent quarters  .
• One May 30 $145 call contract vividly illustrates this:
• IV fell from 91.7% → 41.5% (a −52 ppt drop)
• Premium collapsed from $1.80 → $0.52  .

 

Despite NVDA’s stock rallying (up ~3.7% that day), call holders lost more than half of their option’s value due to IV reduction  .

🔍 Key Insights

Concept	Explanation
IV Crush	Sudden drop in implied volatility after earnings; reduces option premiums.
Magnitude	NVDA often sees 8–16 ppt IV drop; average ~7.9 ppt
Time decay vs IV crush	Even if the underlying moves favorably, a drop in IV can outweigh gains.
Trading Impact	Options traders who bought before earnings typically see losses unless the move exceeds expectations.

 

🧠 How to Anticipate & Predict IV Crush

1. Check IV Rank/Percentile Pre-Earnings

• High IV Rank (e.g. NVDA at ~54%) suggests plenty of “premium on the table” for IV to collapse  .

Compare Implied vs. Historical Move

• If the market expects ±7% but historically it’s only ±4%, there’s likely overpricing and room for IV crush.

Trace Past IV Behavior

• NVDA has delivered IV drops in 19 of its last 20 quarters, typically 8–16 ppt  .

Use IV Analytics Tools

• Platforms like MarketChameleon, Optionslam, or Option Alpha chart historical IV curves and expected patterns.

✅ What This Means for Traders

• Option Buyers: Risky—must generate a move > expected range to offset IV crush and time decay.
• Option Sellers: Preferable—you profit from inflated IV unwinding, even if stock hardly moves.
• Strategic Play: E.g., sell calendars or condors pre-earnings; or buy after IV drops to target momentum or “post-earnings drift.”